Random Rants: World Cup Blog

Best team money could buy might be the World Cup winner.

Chris Courtney

By Chris Courtney
SoccerTimes

BRUSSELS (Saturday, July 8, 2006) -- There are numerous ways to predict which teams will play well in the World Cup, such as the FIFA international rankings (which no one ever took seriously), team history, strength of the player's club teams, using a Ouija board or even listening to pundits. The last two methods seem the most similar in terms of accuracy.

No, it seems a decent indicator this year is to measure teams based on the market value of its players. It probably sounds incredibly crass since we all know there is much more to the game than dollars and cents but, as with so many other things, the market (while not perfect) seldom lies.

By taking a look at the transfer value of the players on each of the 32 teams, we get a useful prediction tool much more accurate than the FIFA rankings. Taking a straight transfer value of the 32 teams, the market picked 12 of the 16 second-round teams and six of the final eight. Within the semifinal group, the market only got one right, Italy, and missed the mark selecting Brazil, England and Spain to round out the final four. Of course, not many would be surprised if those four had made it to the semis.

Is it any accident that the two teams in Sunday's final are the number one and number five teams in terms of market value? Italy's team of 23 players is ranked number one, worth $483 million, while France's lineup is fifth most valuable at $329 million. Early favorite Brazil, which fell to France in the quarterfinals, was number two in market value at $467 million. Nonetheless, France had to beat the number two team en route to being in the final pair.

Of course transfer values of soccer players do not just indicate current abilities, but also future potential as seen by clubs which make these investments. Thus, some of the most highly valued sides with younger average ages indicate teams that have yet to reach their peak. Two examples which come to mind are England, number three in market value at $450 million with an average age of 25.9 and number four Spain, valued at $329 million and an average age of 26.3. Perhaps these younger (but highly valued) teams will not truly shine until the Euro 2008 tournament, just two years away.

Of course, market values could not predict key injuries to England's Michael Owen and David Beckham or the red card that saw Wayne Rooney sent off in the heartbreaking quarterfinal loss to Portugal. The market could also not predict that France's old guard would find a second wind to top Spain, Brazil, and Portugal (number seven at $288 million) on its way to the final match.

Host nation Germany was number nine in value at $229 million and a relatively young side with an average age of 26.9. Nonetheless, it managed to beat a similarly aged Argentina (average age 26.7) on penalties, a team ranked number six at $289 million. Of course, Argentina coach Jose Pekerman's questionable substitution decisions in the later stages of that game left the door open for Germany to equalize, and eventually, overachieve.

The United States finished the World Cup in 25th place, which is not far off from its market value rank of 22 at $51 million. This seems a more accurate indicator than the USA's pre-World Cup FIFA ranking of number five. The market indicated the Americans would finish last in Group E, but they did come close to confounding the prediction.

Of course, market values for the world's previously lesser-known players, such as those on the U.S. team, are notoriously inaccurate. For example, market experts in Europe gave U.S. defender Jimmy Conrad a value of zero since no one had yet bid on him. After his performances in Germany, he'll likely have a transfer value around $1-1.5 million. At the same time, Clint Dempsey's pre-World Cup transfer value of $1 million has at least doubled since his two Group E appearances. In my opinion, the U.S. team is worth closer to $60-65 million, but this would only make it the number 20 team (in terms of market value), equal with CONCACAF rival Mexico.

The team that ended the USA's dreams this year, Ghana, is also undervalued at $77 million, making it number 18. Expect its lineup to increase in value, especially when the bids start to arrive at Fenerbahce (Turkey) for the services of Ghana team captain Stephan Appiah. Another African team, Ivory Coast, was the 11th most expensive team in the World Cup at $138 million. Since it was drawn into a powerful group with the number eight Netherlands ($253 million) and Argentina (number six at $289 million), it was much more difficult to strut its stuff at the tournament.

The title of "Best Value for the Money" team this year must go to Ecuador, ranked number 27 at $23 million. It still managed to achieve the final 16, vaulting ahead of teams three times its value before falling to England 1-0 on a David Beckham free kick.

So, is market value an absolute indicator of a team's potential success? Absolutely not! If so, then the 2006 Champions League would have been won by the $564 million Chelsea, not Barcelona -- a team worth $100 million less. Home-field advantage, key injuries, coaching decisions, and old-fashioned team grit play a large role in the outcome, but market value does appear to be a useful indicator of which teams fall into the elite, the near-elite and the also-rans. The current going rate to enter the world's top 10 is $166 million while a value around $90 million (combined with a good draw) is a decent indicator that a team is capable of making the round of 16.

Of course, all transfer values are just an estimation of value and are in a constant state of flux, especially after the World Cup. Many players had an opportunity to prove themselves and thereby increased their value, while more than a few fizzled on the world stage, taking their stock down with them.

If transfer values were the only reliable indicator (which they are not), it means the Italians will win their fourth World Cup on Sunday. Of course, Zinedine Zidane, Thierry Henry and their French teammates will have something to say about it.

Chris Courtney is SoccerTimes European correspondent and lives in Brussels.

Congratulations to the Brussels American School's Lady Brigands, a great bunch of kids who just won the European Division 4 high school championship under the direction of coach Brandy Witmer.

The Lady Brigands, from left to right: front row -- Madison Battersby, Caitlin Quinn and Christine Exner; standing -- Buse Guven, Marina Gombar, Marie Reimann, Cara Murray, Elizabeth McVicker, Brianna Fitch, Jenna Holloway, Jessica Battersby, Katie Weatherbie, Michelle Rosas and coach Brandy Witmer