It Seems To Me . . .

Optimism reigns as new MLS season opens, but positive indications are needed.

WASHINGTON, D.C. (Wednesday, April 4, 2001) -- It is probably an exaggeration to say that this, the sixth season of Major League Soccer, is a make-or-break year for the league. However, it is not an overstatement to say that this has become the most important year that MLS has faced.

A number of the league’s "owner-investors" are clearly starting to get restless. A number of sponsors are starting to ask hard questions about where the league is going. The league’s broadcast partners are looking hard at the television ratings.

Basically, after four straight seasons of declining attendance, the league must do markedly better this year at the gate. Five franchises especially -- the Miami Fusion, Tampa Bay Mutiny, Kansas City Wizards, San Jose Earthquakes and Colorado Rapids -- must draw considerably better than in 2000 or the league has to look very closely at moving or shuttering those operations. The new relationship with the National Hockey League’s Sharks gives rise to hope in San Jose, but the other four teams are left to their own devices.

The New England Revolution, Dallas Burn and New Jersey’s MetroStars, all who are doing OK, also must show improvement this year. It would be a bonus if the league’s stronger clubs -- D.C. United, Columbus Crew, Los Angeles Galaxy, and Chicago Fire increase their attendance.

The owners, or at least a majority of owners, have given commissioner Don Garber and his staff their marching orders for the coming season -- cut the operating loss. They have responded in several ways -- by reducing roster sizes to a bare minimum 18, lowering, and not raising, the salary cap, lessening the number of foreign players to three from four, and by being extremely careful not to sign any new high-salaried, big-name players.

On a more positive note, it would appear the league has stepped up its marketing efforts in almost all its cities, especially in trying to reach out into the local youth and amateur soccer communities. In the past a number of observers have been highly critical of how little some MLS teams have done in their local soccer communities and the league now seems to have realized that this criticism has been valid and is trying to remedy the situation.

On the field, it would appear that overall -- and I stress overall -- the quality of play should be improved this year despite the league’s continued relentless pursuit of parity. While parity is not undesirable -- look at baseball’s problems -- MLS does not seek to achieve this by keeping its strongest teams strong and bringing its weakest teams up to that level. That would simply be too expensive. So the strong are made weaker, while the weak are strengthened to the point where hopefully all meet in the middle.

I was tempted to say all will meet in the mediocre middle. That might be too harsh. Maybe the better term would be an "acceptable" middle. Perhaps, though, the biggest danger is that an acceptable level for the owners might not be considered such by fans who are being asked to pay ever increasing ticket prices.

On paper, at least, the strongest franchises on the field last season were Chicago, Los Angeles and vastly under-achieving D.C. United. All have been forced to jettison key players to get under the salary cap. Upstart Kansas City has lost key players from its championship team.

Miami, San Jose, the MetroStars and New England, however, have been strengthened.

So, who are probably the best and the worst going into this season? Again on paper, it would seem the three strongest teams on the field will be the Fire, Galaxy, and MetroStars, though in all three cases there are "buts."

The Fire, with Hristo Stoitchkov and Josh Wolff up front and Peter Nowak, DaMarcus Beasley and Chris Armas in the midfield, have the most potent offense in the league. There are serious question marks on defense, however. The Galaxy has given up some key players and it’s impossible to say how much highly-paid Luis Hernandez will contribute.

The MetroStars added newcomers Pedro Alvaerz, and the much reviled (by MetroStars’ fans) Richie Williams to solidify a questionable midfield, but this is a team that will continue to be one step from implosion. Whether the team can build on last year’s impressive second-half could depend on the play of newly-promoted goalkeeper Tim Howard.

The most interesting team in the league is D.C. United. No team in league history has lost so many starting players from one season to the next, but a quality nucleus still exists. United improved its shaky goalkeeping, and if some of its newcomers can produce by September, United could easily once again be the team to beat in the league.

It will be interesting to see if new coach Mike Jefferies can make a difference in Dallas. This is a talented team that has tended to underachieve too often. The challenge will be to achieve some level of consistency. Much the same task faces new coach Alfonso Mondelo in Tampa Bay. The Mutiny showed last season it could score goals, but an All-Star performance by goalkeeper Scott Garlick couldn’t prevent conceding goals in bunches. Mondelo has his work cut out for him both in terms of shoring up a weak defense and keeping moody star Mamadou Diallo happy.

Colorado and Kansas City are both in the same boat. They have lost key players and the book is out as to how well they have replaced them. Kansas City had close to a perfect season, last year. Almost everything went right and nothing went wrong. The Wizards will need the same kind of season if they hope to repeat as MLS champions.

After years of bending rules and sparing no expense to build the MetroStars, it seems the Fusion is the new object of the league office’s largess. The team has been made considerably stronger, but in an oddity, even for a league that hasn’t seen a rule it can't change to fit any situation, Jamaican midfielder Andy Williams was waived and picked up by the Revolution.

Even after MLS changed its rules to allow Williams to be re-classified as a "transitional" international so Miami could sign another full international player, one explanation is that apparently the league required the Fusion to clear Williams on the wavier wire as a full international before his contract could be restructured to lower his pay (or change some of it to deferred or bonus money) to allow him to become a transitional international. Another scenario has the Miami front office simply getting outmaneuvered.

With the addition of Jeff Agoos, Zak Ibsen, Landon Donovan and first draft choice Chris Carrieri, San Jose should be improved, but new coach Frank Yallop has to figure out how to play with essentially no midfield.

New England did not get the man it most wanted, Honduran Julio Caesar de Leon, but did get Williams as a consolation prize, if he re-signs with the league, which is not altogether certain. If Brazilian newcomer Cate can play, (and his visa situation is resolved), if John Harkes and Eric Wynalda have some soccer left in them, and if rookie defender Nick Downing is an instant All-Star maybe New England can do something this year. Likely, there are two many ifs.

Columbus will be one of the league’s mystery teams. If Dante Washington and Jeff Cunningham have terrific years, if Brian McBride stays healthy and has his heart in playing in MLS, if Brian Maisonneuve can come back from a series of injuries, if Robert Warzycha has not gotten too old, if John Wilmar Perez and Tenwya Bonseu are for real, this could be a very good team. But that is more ifs than New England is dealing with.

Three coaches are very much in the firing line and better get off to good starts or face the rumors of imminent dismissal. The Crew’s Tom Fitzgerald -- the only coach entering his sixth season with the same team -- and United’s Thomas Rongen are probably the most vulnerable. Miami’s Ray Hudson is only in his second season, but if the Fusion get off to a slow start, he could be a sacrificial lamb to an increasingly desperate management.

Probably the most interesting coaching situation is Tim Hankinson’s arrival in Denver. Hankinson enjoyed a less then successful tenure in Tampa. Now he gets another chance. Given the players the Rapids lost and the question marks that have replaced them, Hankinson will have to prove himself quickly.

So it looks like an interesting year in MLS. Hopefully, the quality of play and the improved marketing will draw new fans to the stadiums and to ESPN’s broadcasts. If that happens, the long-term prospects for the league look good. New stadiums will appear and new investors will likely come forward. Otherwise, come next year, the picture will be far less rosy.

Senior correspondent Robert Wagman's "It Seems To Me . . . " appears regularly on SoccerTimes. He can be e-mailed at bobwagman@soccertimes.com..