September qualifiers offer U.S. men chance to secure World Cup berth.

By Robert Wagman
SoccerTimes

WASHINGTON, D.C. (Monday, August 20, 2001) -- The United States men are about to face a five-day span when they can secure their advancement to the 2002 World Cup with two games remaining in the qualifying process.

A victory over Honduras September 1 at RFK Stadium here would probably assure the Americans would play in their fourth straight World Cup, one of three representatives from CONCACAF, the region of North America, Central America and the Caribbean. If that didn’t do it, a tie four days later in Costa Rica would pretty much render meaningless qualifiers against Jamaica October 9 in the Boston suburbs and in Trinidad & Tobago November 11.

CONCACAF qualifying
Team	W	L	T	Pts	GF	GA
Costa Rica	4	1	1	13	12	7
United States	4	1	1	13	7	2
Honduras	2	2	2	8	13	11
Jamaica	2	2	2	8	5	8
Mexico	2	3	1	7	8	8
Trinidad-Tobago	0	5	1	1	4	13
September 1 games Honduras at United States Costa Rica at Trinidad & Tobago September 2 game Mexico at Jamaica September 5 games United States at Costa Rica Trinidad & Tobago at Mexico Jamaica at Honduras

Between September 1-5, each of the six teams in CONCACAF’s final round robin will play two matches that will go a long way to determine which three nations advance to the next World Cup in South Korea and Japan. Then, each country will have two matches remaining.

The United States and Costa Rica are tied for first place at 4-1-1 with 13 points, followed by Honduras and Jamaica at 2-2-2 with eight points and Mexico at 2-3-1 with seven points. Many now consider the Americans all but qualified for Asia, but U.S. coach Bruce Arena sounds a word of caution. "This competition is still far from over," he said. "There are five teams who could still qualify. We’ve had a very good start, but we still have work to do."

The U.S., Costa Rica, Honduras, Jamaica and Mexico all maintain a real chance to qualify. Only Trinidad & Tobago (0-5-1, 1 point) is already out of the running, if not mathematically.

In 1998, Mexico (18 points), the U.S. (17 points) and Jamaica (14 points) advanced to the World Cup in France.

So, what might happen? Given there are so many possibilities, so many variables, so many what-ifs, that a crystal ball, Ouija board and calculator would be as useful as any other process to keep them straight.

Let’s look first at the best- and worst-case scenarios for the U.S. If Arena’s troops defeat Honduras at RFK September 1 in Washington, D.C., it will give them two more points than it took to qualify in 1998. A draw with Costa Rica in San Jose on September 5 would then probably eliminate any doubt.

At the other end of the scale, two September losses would put the U.S. in a position where it would likely have to win at least one of its final two matches, but possibly need a victory and tie . That certainly can be done, but about the last thing in the world Arena wants is to go to Port-of-Spain in Trinidad on November 11 needing a win to qualify.

This final series has been unlike any in recent history. Usually Mexico runs away with the competition, and everyone else struggles for the other places. This time around, however, Mexico has gotten off to a disastrous start, losing three of its first six matches, including once at home in Azteca Stadium in Mexico City, something that has not happened in more than 30 years.

More than simply Mexico winning, the final rounds of CONCACAF qualifying competitions have always played out in a rather predictable way. Unless playing Mexico, the home side usually wins, thus draws on the road carried great importance. Not this year. Away teams have already won five of the 18 matches, with four others drawn, throwing the competition wide open.

It is the U.S., along with surprising Costa Rica, that have gotten off to the fast starts. Both the U.S. and Costa Rica have away wins at Honduras, and Costa Rica confounded many by beating Mexico in Mexico City. The U.S. came away with a draw in a hard-fought match in Jamaica, and has home decisions over Mexico and Costa Rica.

Further complicating the picture is the recent revival of Mexico where coach Javier Aguirre seems to have turned things around after he replaced Enrique Meza, fired after Mexico fell to 1-3-1 following its 3-1 setback in Honduras June 20.

Mexico defeated the U.S. 1-0 at Azteca July 1 and then went to the final of Copa America before losing to host Colombia.

Even though Mexico stands fifth, and the Mexican media is still predicting disaster, there are those who think it still has the deepest and most talented team in the competition. Still, the Mexicans could still lose out with remaining road contests at Jamaica and Costa Rica, two venues where the home side is rarely beaten. On the one hand, Mexico could win four straight, but without a least one victory away from home, real trouble could be looming.

Some dismissed Honduras and Jamaica before the final round commenced, but Honduras is suddenly on fire, following its triumph over Mexico with a sensational Copa America which included a defeat of Brazil and third place. If Honduras defeats the U.S. September 1 and then wins at home over Jamaica four days later, it would have 14 points with two games left.

Likewise, Jamaica can’t be counted out either, considering it almost never loses at home. If the Reggae Boyz keep that string alive by beating Mexico on September 2 in Kingston, then come back from Tegucigalpa with at least draw with Honduras, the Boyz will be looking good.

So, Arena says, the U.S. has work to do. Given the number of nagging injuries and illnesses to key American players, the job has become more difficult.

Senior correspondent Robert Wagman's "It Seems To Me . . . " appears regularly on SoccerTimes. He can be e-mailed at bobwagman@soccertimes.com..