U.S. couldn't ask for more than a chance to advance in World Cup.

By Robert Wagman
SoccerTimes

WASHINGTON, D.C. (Saturday, December 1, 2001) -- Instant analysis is not easy or usually valid, but it would seem the United States’ World Cup fate comes down to the question of whether it can beat co-host South Korea and Poland in group play. Portugal, the third team in the Group D, from its form in qualifying looks to be the strongest team in the group, and a heavy favorite to finish first.

Two wins in group play guarantees that a team will advance to the Round of 16 and head-to-head elimination play. A victory and a draw, four points, will be enough for some nations to advance with . At worst, four points will earn a tie for second place with the top two teams in each of the eight qualifying groups moving forward to the second round. In the case of a tie for second, or a four-way tie for first, tie-breakers come into play, the first of which is goal differential.

Portugal, ranked fourth by world governing body FIFA, is clearly the strongest team in Group D, winning UEFA (European) Group 2 with a 7-0-3 record. Including Ireland, the Netherlands, Estonia, Cyprus and Andorra, this was widely considered the strongest group in European qualifying and resulted in the Netherlands missing qualification.

According to the always suspect FIFA world rankings, the U.S., on paper, is the second-highest ranked team in the group at 20th. Poland, which won UEFA Group 5 at 6-1-3, in a group with Belarus, Ukraine, Norway, Wales, and Armenia, is ranked 33rd. Host South Korea, which did not have to qualify, is ranked at 43rd.

There are all sorts of mixed blessings in this draw for the U.S.

The biggest was that if the Americans hadn’t been drawn when they were, the results would have been disastrour. Residing in the final Pot 4, most of the other nations had been draw, so if the U.S. hadn’t been picked when it was, it would have played in Japan – a prospect the Americans did not favor -- with a 50 percent chance of winding up in Group F, the so-called "Group of Death."

Group D is difficult, but going through to the next round is not insurmountable as it might have been if, say, the U.S. had been drawn into Group F with Argentina, England and Sweden.

The U.S. also generally caught a break by playing in South Korea since negotiations have already been completed for a high-quality training site in Seoul’s suburbs and the team will be able to set up a base in one place and travel to its group matches.

"I was quite relieved," U.S. coach Bruce Arena said from the draw in Busan.

It certainly is going to be difficult to face the host country, especially if it is the must-win match. Still, South Korea is one of the weaker teams in the field and the U.S. will have a chance to get to know the Koreans very well with a friendly scheduled for next week and a January 19 date in the Gold Cup at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif.

It also helps that if the U.S. that the U.S. will not play the host nation in the opening match when the crowd would likely be in a frenzy.

As for the two upcoming matches with South Korea, the U.S. will use a lineup of Major League Soccer players for the road match on December 9m while several European-based player will also be absent for the Gold Cup meeting.

Arena does not see this as a problem. "Playing these two matches will make our preparation easier," he said. "I don’t think not having our full squad together will make much of a difference. This early match will help some of our team become more comfortable with Korea. The Gold Cup match will have more pressure because both teams will need a win to advance. Korea will not see our full squad until June and that’s helpful."

Portugal is a team that many experts think will go deep into the tournament, possibly even to the final. But the Portugese have shown a propensity to be cautious in the early going and the U.S. is their first opponent, leaving the possibility they might play defensively and satisfied to come out with a draw.

One problem with playing the most difficult opponent first is a loss can be damaging to a team’s rhythm and morale. That clearly was the case in France ’98 when the U.S. was badly outclassed in its opening match against Germany and never recovered.

"I don’t think that will be a problem this time," Arena said. "I’m not concerned about morale should we lose. We’ll be prepared to deal with playing our most difficult opponent first and we’ll deal with the game no matter how it goes."

It is a bit early to assess reactions from most other countries about their draw. One who is not happy is China’s coach Bora Milutinovic, facing the prospect of playing Brazil, Turkey and Costa Rica. "I saw Bora after the draw," Arena reported, "and he was not jumping for joy."

Senior correspondent Robert Wagman's "It Seems To Me . . . " appears regularly on SoccerTimes. He can be e-mailed at bobwagman@soccertimes.com..