Simply put, U.S. controls World Cup destiny -- two wins and in.

By Robert Wagman
SoccerTimes

WASHINGTON, D.C. (Wednesday, October 3, 2001) -- In January, before the current final round of CONCACAF World Cup qualifying began, if the experts had been polled on exactly where the United States would stand after eight of the 10 matches -- in terms of wins, losses and points earned -- most would have said that if the team played well, it would be exactly where it is now.

Almost no one could have predicted how odd the final round results would be.

The standard thinking would be that in the first eight matches, if the U.S. played well, it would have home wins against Costa Rica, Trinidad & Tobago, and Honduras, would have earned away draws with Honduras and Jamaica, and a home draw with Mexico. Had that occurred, the U.S. would now be sitting on 12 points. It was considered possible that the U.S. would have opened the round with a home win against Mexico, but it was equally conceivable that it could have lost to either Honduras or Jamaica away.

The U.S. (4-3-1) has 13 points, so give-or-take a point, it is almost exactly where it figured to be. So to a degree, I have a bit of trouble understanding all the sky-is-falling rhetoric I have been seeing. The difference between what the U.S. figured to do, what it has done, is essentially what happened in the two matches with Honduras. The U.S. did not count on losing to Honduras at RFK Stadium in Washington, D.C., in September. But, then again, it also did not figure on winning in San Pedro Sula.

To some extent the Bruce Arena’s squad is a victim of rising expectations. It ripped through the early matches of the final round, amassing 13 of the possible 15 points in the first five matches. At that point, many expected the Americans to be the first of the three nations from North America, Central America and the Caribbean to qualify for the 2002 World Cup, and by now everyone would be making their reservations in Japan and South Korea.

More than falling short of recent expectations, however, this has been a very unusual final round. In the history of CONCACAF final rounds, Mexico usually dominates. Other teams, except when they play Mexico, usually win at home. Those teams who can steal a point or two on the road are the ones to qualify.

Through eight rounds this series has been completely atypical. To start, Mexico lost three times and drew once, meaning it did not take points away from teams such as Honduras and Costa Rica, as might be expected. At the other end of the table, Trinidad & Tobago has done much worse then last-place teams usually do. Trinidad might have been expected to take up the rear, but not to be winless which left more points for the other teams So, Costa Rica and Honduras wound up doing better than expected, and the U.S. is left, at the moment, needing the win its final two matches to be assured of qualifying.

I would be the first to admit the U.S. has not looked good over the past three matches, the road losses to Mexico and Costa Rica, and the unexpected home loss to Honduras. The team has suffered through a rash of injuries to key players, and since being dominated by a resurgent Mexican squad at Azteca Stadium in Mexico Stadium in July, even though the final score was only 1-0, the team has seemed off-balance.

With only two matches remaining, there are still a bewildering number of things that might happen. While some of these scenarios are somewhat farfetched -- such as the U.S. and Mexico both losing twice while Jamaica wins its final pair and passes them for a qualifying berth -- there are still enough possible results that a crystal ball is probably necessary, even at this late point.

The U.S can qualify for the World Cup with a win and a tie in its last two matches. It might even advance with a win and a loss. But the simplest thing to understand is that no matter what else happens, if the U.S. wins its final two matches, against Jamaica on Sunday and against Trinidad & Tobago on November 11 in Port-of-Spain, it will end up with 19 points, and mathematically it can finish no worse than in third place and be heading to Asia next year.

Senior correspondent Robert Wagman's "It Seems To Me . . . " appears regularly on SoccerTimes. He can be e-mailed at bobwagman@soccertimes.com..