Its margin for error near gone, U.S. still controls its World Cup fate.

By Robert Wagman
SoccerTimes

WASHINGTON, D.C. (Monday, September 3, 2001) -- Now things get interesting!

CONCACAF’s final round of World Cup qualifying has reached a point where one mistake -- possibly just a few inches here or there -- and a nation could wind up missing the World Cup.

Ask Jamaica’s Linval Dixon. In the 2-1 home loss to Mexico yesterday, a setback that surely doomed the Reggae Boyz’s chances of advancement, Mexican winger Jesús Arellano sent a low cross in from the right side. Dixon lowered his head waist high to intercept the ball, but missed by scant inches. Instead, the ball arrived at the feet of striker Cuauhtémoc Blanco, and in the blink of an eye, was in the net for the winning goal in the 74th minute. If Dixon had cleared the ball, Jamaica would still have hope, and Mexico would be fighting for its life. Now, Jamaica faces the realization it won’t repeat its triumph of advancing to France ’98 and Mexico is in the hunt for one of the three World Cup berths from North America, Central America and the Caribbean

Hours could be spent reviewing the United States’ loss at home to Honduras Saturday -- which player had the worst match, what effect the surprisingly huge Honduran crowd had, how much of the fault has to be shouldered by coach Bruce Arena, and so on. That, however, would not be productive.

The best the Americans can do is learn from their mistakes, put the disappointing effort behind them, and quickly look forward to Wednesday night’s important qualifier in Costa Rica.

After falling to second place for the first time in the final round of qualifying at 4-2-1 with 13 points, the U.S. appears to need more five points in its final three qualifiers to assure advancement to the 2002 World Cup in South Korea and Japan. An argument can be made that it is 17 or even 16 points will do the job, but the Americans can’t be certain those totals will do the job.

With 18 points, the U.S. can safely qualify for the World Cup no matter what else happens in other matches which are accompanied by a myriad of possibilities.

After the visit to Costa Rica Wednesday, the U.S. hosts fifth-place Jamaica October 7 at Foxboro Stadium south of Boston before closing with a trip to winless Trinidad & Tobago November 11. Winning at least two of those matches, or recording a victory and two ties would put the U.S. in the World Cup.

Trinidad & Tobago is mathematically out of qualifying and Jamaica is all but done unless it wins its last three, including road matches at Honduras and the U.S. And even that might not be enough.

Since it doesn’t matter where you finish, just that a nation qualifies, the U.S. needs to worry more about Honduras and Mexico behind it than first-place Costa Rica.

If Honduras wins its last three matches, and gains nine points, it would finish with 20 points. If Mexico wins its final three, it will finish with 19 points. However, the two countries meet in Mexico City November 11, the final day of qualifying. If Mexico loses that final match at home, the best it can finish with is 16 points. If Honduras loses, the best it can total is 17. If they draw, Honduras has 18 points and a Mexican 17, assuming, of course, there are no stumbles along the way. Thus the U.S. magic number is 18 points, assuming it can maintain the goal differential advantage it currently holds.

Losing to Costa Rica Wednesday would leave the U.S. 0-3-1 in its last four qualifiers and the pressure would mount. Then, taking four points or less from the last two matches -- both of which the Americans should win -- would leave the U.S. with the possibility of missing the World Cup after three straight appearances. Help could come as soon as Wednesday if Jamaica could somehow pull a draw or better at Honduras which appeared to strong in defeating the U.S. Saturday to not win.

The final spot could come down to goal differential, the first tiebreaker where the Americans currently are plus-4, Honduras is plus-3 and Mexico is plus-1.

So what can the Americans expect from Costa Rica in Saprissa Stadium in San Jose Wednesday night? Probably a more intense effort from the U.S. which, had it won at home Saturday, could have gone to Costa Rica knowing a tie meant World Cup qualification. Now, a tie might still be an acceptable result, but the U.S. must press a team which mathematically has all but assured itself a ticket to Asia.

These are two teams who don’t much like each other and the Costa Rican fans are among the most ardent in Latin America. This will likely be among the most physical matches of the competition despite the presence of Carlos Batres Gonzalez, a non-nonsense referee from Guatemala, in the middle. His experience might be tested throughout a long night.

Two players who could produce a key effort for their respective clubs did not play Saturday. Costa Rican striker Paulo Wanchope, who plays for England’s Manchester City and was the "Most Valuable Player" in the recent Copa America, and U.S. defender Carlos Llamosa, who plays with the Miami Fusion of Major League Soccer, both sat out, partly because they aleady had yellow cards and another would have left them suspended for Wednesday.

What Costa Rica has shown to be a team with several great offensive players led by Wanchope and Rolando Fonseca. When Wanchope plays, everything tends to go through him, meaning a top priority for the Americans is to deny him the ball. That is a tall order, but Llamosa has shown an uncanny ability to do so, as in the 1-0 U.S. victory April 25 in Kansas City, Mo., and in the 0-0 semifinal draw in Columbus, Ohio, last November.

It appears Arena is ready to make some changes from the largely ineffectual side Saturday. One scenario has him moving defender Jeff Agoos from the middle to his old place on the left side and moving Llamosa in the center with Eddie Pope. Another possibility is to move Tony Sanneh to right back and move Richie Williams into the defensive midfield.

Another possibility is Ante Razov might be called in to boost the punchless front line, but no official word of such has come from the U.S. camp.

Wednesday’s meeting is not do-or-die for either participant. Costa Rica might be happy with a draw Wednesday. A loss would not be a happy occasion for the Americans, but they would still be in position to qualify, albeit under enormous pressure.

A win and three points against Costa Rica would make it possible for the Americans to forget Saturday's ugly setback to Honduras.

Senior correspondent Robert Wagman's "It Seems To Me . . . " appears regularly on SoccerTimes. He can be e-mailed at bobwagman@soccertimes.com..