Prediction & odds for the game: Burnley (8/1) v Manchester City (4/11)
When: Wednesday, 30th September @ 7pm K.O
Where: Turf Moor
Burnley will meet PL title contenders Manchester City at Turf Moor this week with a place in the quarter-finals of the EFL Cup at stake.
Burnley haven’t enjoyed the best start to their Premier League campaign but it does look like they want to try and take the cup competitions seriously this year. Sean Dyche is often capable of steadying the ship but instead of simply surviving, it’s quite clear that he wants to thrive up in Lancashire. If they can pull off the upset in this game then very few will deny that they’ll become one of the favourites to win the whole thing.
A penalty shootout win over Sheffield United got Burnley off to a positive start this season but their 4-2 loss against Leicester brought them crashing back down to Earth. They eased to a nice win over Millwall in the second round of the cup, but against Southampton in the Premier League, they never really got going in a 1-0 defeat.
They’ve won the Carabao Cup three years running and in five of the last seven years, and while others may not value this competition all too much, Pep Guardiola certainly does. They’ll want to pick up as much silverware as they possibly can and they’ve got the kind of squad depth that should ensure a relatively easy path to the final. Then again, City have a tendency to fall flat on their face in games that most fans expect them to win.
After being knocked out of the Champions League by Lyon at the quarter-final stage, City bounced back in their first Premier League game of the new season by beating Wolves. They then narrowly edged past Bournemouth in the Carabao Cup, but against Leicester, they slumped to a dramatic 5-2 loss.
Burnley are tough, they’re gritty and we’re expecting them to hold City to a far more respectable scoreline than they did back in June. Both teams are set to make a handful of changes, as you’d expect given the nature of the Carabao Cup’s scheduling, but that isn’t going to be enough to get the Clarets over the finish line. This is going to be the sort of game that doesn’t really allow City’s attacking flair to shine, but it’ll be enough to get them one step closer to winning this trophy for the fourth year in a row.
We do believe this will be a slender triumph for Manchester City which is why we’re backing the under 2.5 goals market. There should still be plenty of opportunities in what we anticipate to be an intriguing tactical battle, but that isn’t going to translate into the sort of goalfest that will go down in the record books.
It’ll be fun, but not in the traditional sense.
Verdict: Back the away at odds of 4/11 and the under 2.5 goals scored at odds of 7/5 (All odds are taken from bet365).