Prediction & odds for the game: RB Leipzig (1/7) v Paderborn (14/1)
When: Saturday, 6th June @ 2.30pm K.O
Where: Red Bull Arena
RB Leipzig’s Champions League aspirations will be tested this weekend as they prepare to host relegation strugglers Paderborn.
Leipzig can slip up one week and absolutely batter another team the next – such is the unpredictable nature of the way in which they play. They’re easily one of the best teams in Germany, and you won’t find many fans or pundits who would deny that, but they need to try and harness the talent that they possess. It’s safe to say they’re one or two seasons away from really contending for the title again, and because of that, their focus purely needs to be on finishing the campaign as strongly as they possibly can.
Leipzig tend to follow happiness up with disappointment these days, as they proved before the lockdown with a 0-0 draw against Wolfsburg followed by a 3-0 demolition of Tottenham Hotspur in the Champions League. Since returning they’ve kept that theme going with a draw against Freiburg, a 5-0 win over Mainz, a draw against Hertha Berlin and a 4-2 success against Cologne.
Paderborn aren’t quite a sinking ship just yet, but they’re getting close. We’re at the point now where they need to start turning draws into wins, and if they don’t, they’re going to be in big trouble. They don’t have all too much to lose now considering most people feel as if they’re destined for the drop anyway, which should give them a bit of creative freedom to express themselves and really go for it. Leipzig will expect them to be conservative, but they need to buck that trend and just throw everything they’ve got at the hosts.
Back to back losses against Mainz and Cologne didn’t exactly fill Paderborn fans with confidence going into the break, but three draws in a row against Dusseldorf, Hoffenheim and Augsburg represented some kind of progress. Unfortunately, against Borussia Dortmund, they were humbled in the form of a 6-1 battering.
As we’ve already alluded to, Leipzig have the potential to change a game in the blink of an eye – and we’re expecting them to do just that against Paderborn. The visitors will probably try and park the bus before hitting Leipzig from some kind of set piece, but something tells us they aren’t going to react well to being bullied off the ball. It’s going to be a pretty close game for the first 25 or 30 minutes, at which point Leipzig will start to increase the pressure before eventually coasting to a comfortable win.
We don’t think they’ll run away with the game in terms of the scoreline, though, which is why we’re backing the under 2.5 goals market.
Verdict: Back the home win at odds of 1/7 and the under 2.5 goals scored at odds of 11/4. (All odds are taken from bet365).[geosnippet id=3620]