On Tuesday night, Wales have a golden opportunity to seal a spot at Euro 2020, as the Dragons host qualification rivals Hungary.
Wales (Odds of 4/5 for victory)
A 2-0 victory in Azerbaijan last time out has made the situation simple for Wales on Tuesday night. If Ryan Giggs team beats Hungary then they will qualify for only their third ever major international tournament. Slovakia are still in the race for qualification, but they would need to beat Azerbaijan and this game would have to finish in a stalemate for the Slovaks to qualify from the group.
Wales are now unbeaten in five international matches and four games unbeaten in qualifying for Euro 2020. The Dragons recent qualifiers have been close encounters of the low-scoring kind, with under 2.5 goals scored in their last five outings. In fact, going back to qualifying for Euro 2016, 11 of their last 12 qualifiers have produced under 2.5 goals.
The home side has a formidable recent home record on home soil in qualifying, as they are unbeaten in ten matches, having recorded seven victories. Their recent home qualifiers have been low-scoring, with under 2.5 goals scored in five of their last six matches. The fact that Wales have kept clean sheets in four of their last six home qualifiers has been a big factor in those recent good results.
Hungary (Odds of 15/4 for victory)
The visitors have enjoyed an up and down campaign in qualifying so far. However, they know that if they avoid a defeat in this potentially difficult clash, then they will qualify for Euro 2020.
Hungary were once a world power in football. However, in recent years success has been harder to come by for the Magyars. In fact, their appearance at Euro 2016 was their first at a European Championships since 1972. They have also not made it to a World Cup since 1986. Qualifying for Euro 2020 would be a step in the right direction for Marco Rossi’s team.
Last time out in qualifying Hungary recorded a narrow 1-0 victory over Azerbaijan. The win ended a mini-run of two straight defeats against Slovakia and Croatia in Group E. The victory last time out kept Hungary in charge of their own destiny.
The Magyars have a mixed recent away record in qualifying for the European Championships, but a record of two wins from their last six matches is not a great one. Their recent away qualifiers have been relatively low-scoring, with under 2.5 goals scored in ten of their last ten games.
This is a do-or-die game for both of these teams. Hungary have the advantage in that they only need a draw. However, Wales are at home, where they have a very good recent record in qualifying.
We are backing Wales to edge this game and are backing them at odds of 4/5 for victory. However, we believe this will be a tight and low-scoring encounter, so we are also backing the under 2.5 goals scored at odds of 8/13. Neither offers great value, but they look like solid bets.
Verdict: Back the home win at odds of 4/5 and/or back the under 2.5 goals scored at odds of 8/13. (All odds are taken from Bet365).
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Who will qualify for Euro 2020 between Wales or Hungary?