On Saturday night, Germany host Belarus in Group C of qualifying for the European Championships, as the home side looks to seal their spot at Euro 2020.
Germany (Odds of 1/16 for victory)
The home side is currently second place in Group C, level on points with leaders the Netherlands, with the Oranje topping the table due to a superior head-to-head record. A win will see Die Mannschaft book their place at Euro 2020 if Northern Ireland fails to get anything from their clash with the Netherlands.
Die Mannschaft have won five of their six qualifiers in Group C, with their only defeat a 4-2 home loss against the Netherlands. The home side has won 11 of their last 13 European Championship qualifiers, dating back to 2014.
A key to that stellar qualifying record is Germany’s free-scoring form, as they have now scored at least twice in 12 of their last 13 qualification games. Considering their opponents recent record, that could well happen again on Saturday night.
The aforementioned defeat by the Netherlands ended a 13-game unbeaten home run in qualifying. They have won ten of their last 13 qualifiers on home soil. Unsurprisingly considering Germany’s recent record in qualifying generally, the home side has been prolific on home soil, scoring at least two goals in 11 of their last 12 outings.
Bayern Munich winger Serge Gnabry has scored an impressive five goals in qualifying so far. The former Arsenal star has scored ten times in his first 11 international appearances.
Belarus (Odds of 40/1 for victory)
This game is a daunting prospect for Belarus, who have picked up just four points from their seven group games so far. Their only victory of the qualifying campaign was against Estonia, as the visitors recorded a 2-1 win. The only other time Belarus have avoided defeat in the group was the reverse fixture against Estonia, which ended goalless. Last time out in qualifying, they suffered a 2-1 defeat against the Netherlands.
Their current position in the group is unsurprising, as Belarus have won just two of their last 20 qualifiers for the European Championships.
Belarus have a poor recent away record in qualifying, winning three of their last 12 matches on their travels. Their recent away qualifiers have at least provided good entertainment value, with over 2.5 goals scored in six of their last seven qualifiers on the road. The fact that the visitors have kept just one clean sheet in their last six away games in qualifying is a big factor.
Germany are expected to win this game comfortably, so there is no value on backing the home team for a victory in this clash at 1/16. Even the under/over market offer very little value.
Instead, we will look to the anytime goal market and the first goal market. The two players we are focussed on are Timo Werner and Serge Gnabry. Werner is in stellar form for club side RB Leipzig, so looks a decent bet for first goalscorer at odds of 12/5. We are also backing Gnabry to score anytime at odds of 8/13. With limited betting options on this game, those are the markets you are likely to better value in.
Verdict: Back Timo Werner for the first goalscorer at odds of 12/5 and/or Serge Gnabry anytime goalscorer at odds of 8/13. (All odds are taken from Bet365).
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Will Germany record a routine win over Belarus?